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Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Obama Ahead In Nearly Every Battleground State Poll

The conventional wisdom before Hurricane Sandy suggested a split between the popular vote and the Electoral College, where President Obama would ultimately triumph due to his narrow — but consistent — lead in the majority of the crucial swing states. Judging by the latest polls released Wednesday, that dynamic has not changed.

Mitt Romney continues to hold an narrow lead in the popular vote, according to the latest Rasmussen poll that shows him up by two points. This suggests no changes took place between Rasmussen’s prior October 6 poll and now, when Romney also led by a two-point margin. Gallup has not yet resumed polling after the storm, and as such it remains to be seen whether Romney’s significant five-point lead among likely voters has been affected as a result of President Obama’s lauded response to Sandy.

Meanwhile, Obama was ahead in nearly every swing state poll released yesterday. In Ohio, Obama leads by five points in both the Quinnipiac and Public Policy Polling polls, 50 to 45 percent. A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed him up by three points, and a University of Cincinnati poll up by two points. In other words, barring a radical shift towards Romney in the next five days, Obama will win the Buckeye State. Keep in mind that no Republican president has gained access to the White House without Ohio’s electoral votes.

In Florida the picture is more muddled, though slightly leaning towards Romney. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows them tied at 47 percent, while Gravis and We Ask America show Romney on top by three points and one point, respectively. Obama has a narrow one-point lead in a Quinnipiac poll.

In Iowa, another state heavily targeted by both candidates, polls mostly favor the Democratic candidate. PPP shows Obama leading 50 to 45 percent, and 49 to 47 percent in a We Ask America poll. A University of Iowa poll, meanwhile, had Romney up by a single point.

The latest polls from Virginia revealed conflicting information. A Reuters/Ipsos poll had a 48 to 46 lead for Obama, while a Roanoke poll showed Romney leading 49 to 44 percent—a significant discrepancy. Another Quinnipiac poll showed a two point lead for Obama, indicating a tight and unpredictable race. Real Clear Politics’ average currently shows a .5 point lead for Romney. Nate Silver of the New York Times, however, forecasts a 60.1 percent chance of Obama winning in Virginia.

In Wisconsin, Paul Ryan’s home state, President Obama is unambiguously ahead in the polls. A Marquette Law poll and a PPP poll both show him in the lead by eight and five points, respectively.

All signs point to a very close race in Colorado. A We Ask America poll showed Obama leading 50 to 47 percent, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Romney ahead by a one point margin.

In North Carolina, the latest PPP poll showed Obama and Romney tied at 49 percent. However, both Real Clear Politics‘ average (+3.8 points for Romney) and Nate Silver’s forecast (81.4 percent chance of Romney win) indicate a clear advantage towards the Republican candidate.

For those interested in how the betting world views the election, look no further than InTrade, a stock market of gambling in virtually any subject. According to Wednesday’s round of polls, the closest races will be fought in Colorado, Virginia, and Florida. In Colorado, the gambling odds of an Obama win are 60 percent, versus 48.8 percent for Romney. In Virginia, the odds are 49.8 percent for Obama, and 50 percent for Romney—a close reflection of the tight race in that state. A big majority believe Romney will win Florida—69 percent against 33 percent for Obama, according to the bets placed.

Given the current makeup of the electoral map, and the marked advantage of Obama in most battleground states, it appears increasingly unlikely that Romney will cobble together enough votes to win the Electoral College on November 6.

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Copyright 2012 The National Memo
  • chisolm

    There would be more faith in polls if they told us how the weighted them. I suspect most polls are using 2008 data when trying to determine who will vote next week. In other words, many of the polls are merely trying to get the outcome they are looking for. Take a look at your favorite poll next Monday and then on Wednesday plug in the actual vote and we will know which polls are being used to try and influence the election.

    • Chisolm electronic internet polls don’t mean much because everybody doesn’t participate as much as the poll booth on election day. Early voting has Obama leading in every battleground state. I can’t wait til I cast my vote for Obama on election day.

  • BDD1951

    Everybody vote early if you can. Save yourself from standing in line Tuesday.

    • Sandra

      Do these Republicans know what they are voting for and why? Romney is Bush on steroids to quote PO. Is their hate for a black man who has done much to balance out and improve the disaster that was George W. Bush so strong that they will cut off their nose to spite their face.

      • AMADAL

        No, Sandra, most Reupkelicans don’t know what they are voteing for. The ones I know are for RoMoney because he will cut taxes and is for smaller government. That is all they know. Most of these idiots know nothing beyond this. As I’ve told most of them, they are not rich enough to benefit from these tax cuts–most are solid middle class. It’s not good to vote for a single issue and avoid the rest of the platform–but since most of them were educated in Repukelican supproted schools, it’s no wonder they don’t know anything about the real issues. That’s what they aree counting on.

      • onedonewong

        Obama is Hitler on steroids they both are true believers in the socialist party

      • Sandra ” Is their hate for a black man who has done much to balance out and ….” You are right about ‘a black man ‘ but do you and like of you know that beside that he is ‘a muslim’ ? Just go to YouTube and type in search box ” Obama admits he is a muslim” and hear from horse’s mouth. Allah help you all.

  • Vote on Nov 6. God bless America. Obama is going to get around 300 College electrol vote.

    • onedonewong

      From all 57 States

      • Dave

        You didn’t build that.

        • “That” refers to businesses not solely building the roads and bridges that allow people to travel to those businesses and which allow the goods of businesses to be transported. Of course, like most Republicans, your opinions just aren’t deterred by the facts.

        • Damn right I built that. If I have a thriving taxi business then I built the roads that my taxis drive on. If I have a thriving gas station business then I built the gas pipelines that bring the gas to my state. I built it all. I depend on no one. I am an island. I do not depend on the services that any government provides! Damn right yeehaw andgod bless America.

          • Without taxpayers money, the government can’t build anything!.

  • Alexa Robinson

    MITT ROMNEY WILL WIN!!! Unless we ALL VOTE! I almost liked it better when it was the dead heat as it certainly made me determined to vote. Keep the feeling America! VOTE ON 6 NOV! Please!!

  • Lovefacts

    I agree with Pratap. On Nov 6th, Obama will be re-elected and receive around 300 Electoral College votes.

    However, as disgusted by Romney as I am, I more so by the news. They have an attention span of a gnat. They don’t inform, then sensationalize in 20 second sound bites. When I know more about how and why a situation has taken place, when I remember the history behind an event and they don’t, we have major trouble.

    Also, I’m sick to death of hearing about the polls. The news takes them as gospel and uses them to gin up their ratings. Well, the polls are inaccurate. Almost all of them don’t include people who have cell phones. So, they keep getting the same ole people–white men, especially in the South–because a large percentage of minorities and people under 35 have no land lines, they use only cell phones.

    • northroader1775

      I think he’ll do quite a bit better than that…but it won’t matter at all to me as long as he gets the 270…what is more important is will we take back the house and keep the senate?? if we can do that it’s game on…and I don’t think the POTUS will make the same mistake he did last time…screw bipartisanship…do what’s best for the country and let the teabaggers drown in their own bile.

      Even if we don’t get the house back this time we should keep right on riding these pukes until they are extinct. 2014…2016…however long it takes to wipe them from politics altogether.

  • TheOldNorthChurch

    These organizations needed the Polls to show positive for the President. His money was drying up. No one wants to donate to a loser. Wait until Sunday and we will see where the polls are for election day. They will be where they were on Sunday of this week.

    Game Over for Obama.

  • William Deutschlander

    Romney/Ryan will destroy the U S A and DEMOCRACY!

    • northroader1775

      No bill they won’t ever get the chance! we all need to stop imagining a world where that is possible…just go vote and take one other person to vote with you. Each one win one and we can’t lose…the right has hate and fear we have love and joy…love and joy win everytime….leave the hate and fear to the losers.

  • Alan Wilson

    I’d like to ask the American people.

    Mitt Romney has not informed them of his tax plans which are vital for any Presidential incumbent, he hasn’t even told them he he has personal done with tax planning over the last ten years so how can anyone vote for him? You’d need more than this to have a McDonalds franchise !

    He as given multiple and contrary positions on virtually every subject that has been discussed and his election team have released press releases explaining Mitt did not mean what he said, he said, at almost every meeting and event he has participated in.

    Is Mitt Romney one of triplets , all with widely different views ?

    I am more than confused about who this guy is and what he stands for, or doesn’t stand for in fact ,with his multiple multinational bank accounts ,think we could see Mitt run for office in another country very soon. Which one is anyone’s guess.

    • Sand_Cat

      Take a look at ALLLLAMERICAN’s post above yours, and think again whether a rational, reasoned argument is worth the effort.

    • To put your mind at ease, I would advise you to lay off the Rachel Maddow and other left wing propaganda media sources like this one. Then, instead of focussing on small issues like a candidate’s income taxes, perhaps you could look at what a miserable failure Obama has been during his four year rule.

      • AdamMos

        How about a stock market that has doubled since 2009. How about 30 straight months of private sector job growth. How about a stimulus that ended the recession. How about the fact that taxes are lower. How about the killing of Osama Bin Laden and the destruction of Al Quaida. How about the victory in Iraq and our troops coming home. How about the overthrow of Mubarak and Khadafee. How about the improving housing market. How about the repeal of DADT. How about universal health care and millions of lives being saved and reducing our defecit at the same time. How about the expansion of Medicaid. How about the Dream Act which did not grant amnesty. How about equal pay for equal work. How about the saving of the auto industry and the financial services industry. How about credit card reform. How about the new and improved FEMA. You are watching history being made. Obama will go down as one of the greatest if not the greatest Presidents ever. OBAMA 2012!

        • amazonfan

          I love Obama, and I desperately hope he winss, however he had nothing to do with Mubarek & Gadaffi.


    ALLLLL you LIBS ARE PATHETIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    YOU MAKE ME SICK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



    Instead of obama protecting this great nation and informing the American people of this act of war,

    he lied and blamed America and our most basic freedom — freedom of speech.

    There was no anti-freedom of speech protest at the Libyan consulate as obama and his quislings (Hillary Clinton, Susan Rice, Jay Carney, Joe Biden et al) have told us so many times.

    The obama administration spent $75,000 on ads apologizing for our free speech rights in, of all places, Pakistan.

    obama is not merely a bad president,


    The Post-American Presidency: The obama Administration’s War on America

    “Benghazi Attack Was Botched Kidnapping To Trade Blind Sheik”

    The attack of the Libyan consulate was tied neither to a video or terrorism, but a botched kidnapping of Ambassador Stevens.

    That Barack HUSSEIN obama had arranged with the Muslim Brotherhood to kidnap the Ambassador, and through obama’s supposed affinity with the Muslim world, obama would save the day and get the ambassador released.

    But the Muslim Brotherhood wanted something in return.
    Their beloved Blind Sheik.


    Western Journalism broke the news that a source connected to the White House has stated that the murder of Stevens and the other Americans was a botched kidnapping linked to one Barack HUSSEIN obama.

    Obama lied, Americans died: Libyan Attack was botched kidnapping to trade WTC bombing Blind Sheikh


    • You need a nap my friend. Don’t let your hate and fear cloud your judgement.

      • Linda: this guy does not need a nap, he needs a beatdown for being so oblivious to current events. He must be part of Romney’s family. Maybe he is my neighbor….you just never know how people really feel. God Bless America is that fool takes office.

    • northroader1775

      We didn’t vote a muslim in…we voted a christian who actually practices christianity…odd that you have such trouble with that.

      seriously odd

      oh and rewrite your crap once in is soooo tiresome reading the same lies over and over.

      Here I’ll start one for you…..

      “Once upon a time in a bubble far far away…….. go ahead run with that one.

    • DukeDacat

      An “AMERICAN” you are not……………

      You are full of Faux Noise “Bullshit”!!!!!!

  • bcarreiro

    romney/ryan are a disgrace to this nation and november obama/biden will reign on their sharade.

  • This is going down as Mitt’s nightmare or American’s resolution: Mitt will get “47” percent to Pres Obama’s 54. Mitt will carry his “47” as his cross and forever have to be reminded of his “honest” statement, his own honesty. Pres Obama’s and Christie’s recent interchange proved how wrong Mitt was as to the Pres ability to work “across aisle”. Sometimes pressure situations and unexpected situation reveal the correct person. If Ohio did not see that and actually listen to his comments about the auto industry, there is no doubt that Obama will carry O.H.I.O!!

  • Just remember, the various groups doing the polling have their own favorite. Some are even being fooled into thinking that the majority of the voters are forgetfull. Even worse, they continue to underestimate the intelligence of the average voter. We all have the ability to rise above our differences. Just look at the very example put forth by our President. In times such as these, we need someone in leadership who really cares about ALL of us. Right?

  • onedonewong

    The only poll that matters is Rasmussen all the rest are nothing but white noise

  • very close race this is,but i’m confident now than ever that Obama will prevail.

  • Watching CNN tonight it looks like Katrina all over again. I think Obama should stop campaigning now – let the ad buys strategically do the talking – and focus on being the president we need right now.

  • This poll analysis is not correct because it is based on live telephone interviews on landlines and cell phones among some randomly-chosen likely voters nationwide. Telephone interviews will not reveal the race or religion of voters. African-Americans and Muslims will respond overwhelmingly in favor of Obama (example Colin Powell). But if a cross section of American voters is interviewed, the voting pattern will be different. In such a calculation, Romney will lead by 7 points in most states. This is going to happen on November 6. This is quite transparent from the huge crowds that throng Rpmney’s meetings, especially teenagers and women.

  • Ari Brom

    Vote for Obama bin Biden and this country will become China’s slave. Go ahead.

  • Ari Brom.” Vote for obama bin Biden and this country will become China’s slave Go ahead ” Not ONLY that, but under obama the muslim Sharia Laws will be implemented and more rights will be given to muslims than any other group to promote Islam, more mosques will be build, and in 50 to 100 years some parts of America will become ‘Islamic State ‘ within a USA, laugh if you may, but that will happen for sure.

  • ALLLLAMERICAN. Very well said, but knowing naive Americans ,they would hardly agree with you. I don’t blame them, because they are in the habit of NOT knowing the truth about Obama, Islam and muslims. I’m neither an American nor live in America. It so unfortunate that this site will NOT allow me to give references / websites for people to read.

  • Lynda ” You need a nap my friend…”
    Manuel “…this guy does not need a nap ,he needs a beatdown……”
    northroader1775.”oh and rewrite your crap once in is soooo”
    Duke Dacat, ” An America you are not…You are full of Faux Noise Bullshit ”
    What is surprising to me is that instead of proving ALLLAMERICAN wrong you attack him personally. Shame on you so called Americans.
    Shows your intelligence, is there any wonder obama will win with the likes of you lot.

  • see 3w’s dotthereligionofpeacedotcom

  • All the speeches are nothing but empty promises. The fact is America will remain in a doldrums if it does not wake up to reality. America has to level up with everyone in the globe. Your currency is too over bloated, and you expectation is too high. And worst, you have price your labor out of business. Unless you buy “Made in America goods, you will be setting fire in your sala. There is no way you will improve unless you bring your items down and patronize it. Start buying “Made in America!”

  • loviep

    this man does not deserve four more years, and America cannot heal and grow if some how he wins …..God save America……

  • The polls on Nov 7: Obama wins, Romney sends his congratulatory message and begins campaign for 2016 presidency!

  • onehot nick77

    its sad to see obama loose this election, but i think he now knows that he lost is.. i cant see any energy in obama.. i been watching rallys every where same massage….

  • Rex Remes

    What a misleading headline. “Obama ahead in nearly every …” ? What a load of rubbish.

    There are polls (mentioned in the article) that show Romney ahead in:
    North Carolina

    That’s 5 out of 7 battleground states mentioned in the article.

    Why isn’t the title “Romney ahead in a large majority of the battleground states”??

  • ijeffreyi

    Funny as Rasmussen, 1 of 2 polling outfits to actually get the 2008 election correct, had Romney up 1 point in Iowa, 3 points in Colorado, dead even in Ohio and Wisconsin, up in North Carolina, Virginia and Florida by 2.