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Tag: montana elections 2014
First-Term State Lawmaker Faces Hasty Campaign In Montana Senate Race

First-Term State Lawmaker Faces Hasty Campaign In Montana Senate Race

By Kurtis Lee, Los Angeles Times

For Montana Democratic state Rep. Amanda Curtis, victory this November in her state’s U.S. Senate race will be a difficult task.

The first-term state lawmaker from the mountain town of Butte was selected Saturday by state Democrats as the party’s nominee in a special convention hastily assembled after U.S. Senator John Walsh bowed out of the race this month in the wake of plagiarism allegations.

With little money or statewide name recognition, Curtis is thought to have an uphill climb to beat GOP nominee Rep. Steve Daines in a midterm election that is less than three months away.

“It’s nearly impossible for her to beat Daines, just like it was difficult for Walsh,” said David Parker, a political science professor at Montana State University. “She has three months to get her name known around the state and it’s likely to be a wave year for Republicans, so she’s just put in a difficult place.”

When Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock appointed Walsh in February to replace longtime Senator Max Baucus, Democrats had hoped that they could retain the seat because Walsh’s credentials included service in the Montana National Guard and in Iraq. But polls leading up to Walsh’s exit from the race had him trailing Daines.

Curtis, a 34-year-old high school math teacher, has strong support from unions in the state, which will bankroll her campaign and look to blunt some of Daines’ $1.7-million war chest.

After Walsh’s exit from the race, some urged former Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer to run against Daines to give the party a recognized nominee who could quickly raise money.

“Now, the party has a schoolteacher. She’s known in Butte, but in political circles around the state she is not a household name,” Parker said. “She’s essentially the party’s scapegoat this fall.”

Curtis bested rancher Dirk Adams in Saturday’s nominating convention.

Republicans need to pick up six seats to take control of the Senate, and Montana is one of a handful of states with open Democratic seats they hope to capture. The others include West Virginia and South Dakota, where Sens. Jay Rockefeller IV and Tim Johnson are retiring.

Matt Canter, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, declined to comment on the battle Democrats face in Montana, but said Saturday that the committee plans to support Curtis.

Jim Larson, chairman of the state Democratic Party, called Curtis a “force to be reckoned with.”

“As a teacher, Curtis has a unique insight into what matters most to Montana families,” Larson said.

Photo via Wikimedia Commons

With John Walsh’s Exit, Montana Democrats Prepare To Select New Nominee

With John Walsh’s Exit, Montana Democrats Prepare To Select New Nominee

By Kurtis Lee, Los Angeles Times

A pair of state lawmakers and a bank-regulator-turned-rancher are set to square off Saturday in a special nominating convention to replace embattled U.S. Senator John Walsh (D-MT), as the party’s nominee this November.

The convention comes after Walsh dropped his bid last week to retain the seat after allegations that he had plagiarized parts of a 2007 paper he submitted for an advanced degree at the U.S. Army War College.

Democrats have an uphill climb to retain of control of the seat held by longtime Senator Max Baucus before he was tapped to become the U.S. ambassador to China. Walsh’s appointment in February by Democratic Governor Steve Bullock gave Democrats faint hope that they could retain the seat, because Walsh’s credentials included service in the Montana National Guard and in Iraq.

The plagiarism accusations, first made by The New York Times, undercut that image; Walsh later apologized for any mistakes in attribution before dropping his election bid.

At Saturday’s convention, Rep. Amanda Curtis, state Senator David Wanzenried and rancher Dirk Adams will seek to replace him as the Democratic nominee. Curtis, a first-term state lawmaker from Butte, received the endorsement this week of MEA-MFT, Montana’s largest labor union, which represents teachers and state employees.

Polls leading up to Walsh’s exit from the race found him trailing U.S. Rep. Steve Daines, the Republican nominee.

“Steve Daines is one of the strongest candidates in the country, was well-positioned to defeat Sen. Walsh and is well-positioned to defeat whichever Band-Aid candidate Democrats select,” said Brad Dayspring, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Republicans need a net gain of six seats to take control of the Senate, and Montana was one of three states that they had been counting on. The other two are West Virginia and South Dakota, where Senators John D. Rockefeller IV and Tim Johnson are retiring.

“It’s always been clear that Democrats’ chances were slim here in Montana,” said David Parker, a political science professor at Montana State University. “This is a conservative state in a year where the GOP has national momentum leading up to November. Add in a candidate with little to no money and low name ID, it’s nearly impossible to retain this seat.”

Republicans also appear increasingly confident in Iowa, where the Democratic candidate, Rep. Bruce Braley, has stumbled repeatedly. But Democrats hope their incumbents in four other closely contested Senate races in North Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas and Alaska can pull through.

Curtis said Tuesday she was “encouraged and optimistic” about replacing Walsh on the ballot. “We’ll work hard this week and look to secure the support at the convention. … From there, it’s onto November,” Curtis said.

Wanzenried, 65, has served in both the state House and Senate, and while speaking to the Billings Gazette on Monday, he said he’ll tout experience in state government as a selling point to delegates.

Adams, a former senior federal banking regulator who ran against Walsh in the three-way June Senate primary and captured just 13 percent of the vote, could self-fund his campaign, making him a lucrative choice, say some analysts.

A third candidate from the June primary, former Montana Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger, has not decided if he’ll seek out support from delegates at Saturday’s convention.

In an interesting twist, an online petition to nominate actor Jeff Bridges — a Montana resident who in the past has made campaign donations to Governor Bullock and the state party 00 gained traction over the weekend.

About 1,000 people signed the petition on Change.org.

In an interview on Howard Stern’s radio show Monday, Bridges said he was flattered by the petition. The Oscar-winning actor said he mentioned the idea to his wife.

“She looks at me and goes, ‘Don’t even think about it,'” Bridges said.

Poll Roundup: Are Democrats Done In Montana?

Poll Roundup: Are Democrats Done In Montana?

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, pollsters across the country will begin releasing masses of data and their predictions of who will control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. We’ll put those polls in focus and provide a brief summary of some key polls. Here’s a poll roundup from the week of May 4:

Montana:

According to a Hickman Analytics poll released on Thursday, Montana is shaping up to be an easy win for the GOP come November. The poll shows that Representative Steve Daines (R-MT) holding a 12-point advantage over Democratic senator John Walsh.

President Obama appointed former senator Max Baucus (D-MT) — who had announced that he would not seek re-election — as U.S. ambassador to China in December. In February, Governor Steve Bullock (D-MT) appointed Walsh, then the state’s lieutenant governor, to complete Baucus’ term. Walsh had already been the favorite for the Democratic nomination to replace Baucus. It appears that his months of incumbency have not helped him gain much traction in deep-red Montana, however.

According to the same Hickman poll, Daines holds a 48 percent approval rating across the state. That’s a 10 points better than Walsh or President Obama, who lost the state by 14 points in 2012.

Kentucky:

Polls show Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) with a wide lead over Tea Party challenger Matt Bevin in Kentucky’s May 20 Republican primary — but the general election continues to pose a challenge for the incumbent senator seeking his fifth term.

The most recent Hickman Analytics poll out of Kentucky has Senator McConnell with a narrow 1-point advantage over his Democratic challenger, Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. McConnell holds 46 percent of the vote among likely voters, versus Grimes’ 45 percent — well within the poll’s +/- 4.4 percent margin of error.

McConnell and Grimes have been running even throughout the campaign, and all signs point to a tight race until November. Although Kentucky is a reliably red state, the minority leader’s approval rating has fallen as low as 32 percent in February, and remains comparable to President Obama’s in the Bluegrass State.

Georgia:

An InsiderAdvantage poll released on Wednesday confirmed previous surveys showing former Reebok CEO David Perdue jumping ahead of his challengers for Georgia’s open Senate seat. The poll shows Perdue with a solid 8 percent advantage ahead of the May 20 primary.

Georgia’s former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) and Representative Jack Kingston (R-GA) remain virtually tied for second. InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery is not ready to count out Handel and Kingston from gaining the Republican nomination. If they secure enough of the overall vote during the primary and force a runoff, Towery is convinced they may be able to pull ahead of Perdue for the Republican nomination.

“One thing that might lower Perdue’s actual Election Day performance is his lack of a major voter turnout machine,” Towery said. “Both Handel and Kingston have natural political bases of support, and they can and will come out to vote. The next week could see several more shifts as voters now get down to actually paying attention.”

Connecticut:

Incumbent governor Dannel Malloy (D-CT) faces a close election against Republican frontrunner and 2010 challenger Tom Foley.

A Quinnipiac poll released on Friday finds Malloy and Foley in a 43-43 percent tie, with a +/- 2.4 percent margin of error. Governor Malloy has a slight image advantage, with a 46 percent favorability rating; Foley’s is just 36 percent.

Republicans have been criticizing Malloy for his handling of the state budget and taxes, and for failing to deliver a promised $55 per person tax refund. The Quinnipiac survey demonstrates this may not hold any significant weight with voters when they head to the polls, however.

“Economic issues are dragging Governor Malloy down,” said Quinnipiac University poll director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. “A bright spot for Malloy is that voters think he has strong leadership qualities and is honest and trustworthy.”

Malloy won the 2010 gubernatorial race against Foley by less than 1 percent of the vote.

Photo by “jimmywayne” via Flickr

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Midterm Poll Roundup: Can Republicans Win In New England?

Midterm Poll Roundup: Can Republicans Win In New England?

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, an avalanche of polling data will emerge on the key races that will decide who controls the House of Representatives, the Senate, and statehouses across the country. What follows is a brief summary of some key polls from the week of March 16:

New Hampshire
Republicans are hoping that former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown’s all-but-certain entrance into New Hampshire’s 2014 Senate race will turn the Granite State into a serious 2014 battleground, but the polls suggest that this may be wishful thinking.

According to an American Research Group poll released Monday, Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) has a comfortable 50 to 38 percent lead over Brown, with 12 percent undecided. Those numbers are similar to a recent Suffolk University/Boston Herald poll that found Shaheen up 13, and solidify the incumbent Democrat’s status as the frontrunner.

ARG also polled New Hampshire’s gubernatorial race, with similarly strong results for the Democrats. Governor Maggie Hassan leads Republican challenger Andrew Hemingway 45 to 30 percent, with 25 percent undecided — 37 percent of respondents approve of Hassan, while 25 percent disapprove and 38 percent are undecided.

Most polls find Hassan’s approval ratings to be much higher; the first-term Democrat is widely regarded as one of the most popular governors in America.

Massachusetts
The woman whom Scott Brown defeated in 2010 looks like she may have more success than her former rival in 2014. A WBUR poll released Thursday shows Massachusetts attorney general Martha Coakley leading state treasurer Steve Grossman 45 to 14 percent in the Democratic primary for governor, with three other candidates polling in the low single-digits.

Should Coakley advance to the general election, she would also hold a comfortable 41 to 26 percent lead over likely Republican nominee Charlie Baker.

Coakley should not start measuring the drapes at the governor’s office yet, however. Her strong numbers are likely fueled by her 94 percent name recognition in the Bay State, which is well above Grossman’s 60 percent and Baker’s 74 percent. In other words, it’s still far too early to declare Coakley impervious to another upset loss.

Georgia
Republicans may have gotten some good news this week, when a Survey USA poll found businessman David Perdue leading the field in Georgia’s Republican Senate primary with 29 percent. U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston placed second at 19 percent, followed by Rep. Phil Gingrey at 12 percent, Rep. Paul Broun at 11 percent, and former Georgia secretary of state Karen Handel at 10 percent. The close race makes it incredibly likely that the nomination will be decided by a runoff election.

Perdue and Kingston would almost certainly be national Republicans’ top choices to appear on that ballot, as they are considerably less likely to commit a devastating gaffe than the erratic Broun or Gingrey.

The Survey USA poll is an outlier, however; no other survey of the race has found Perdue leading the field, and The Huffington Post’s polling average of the race finds the five top candidates essentially tied in the low teens.

Montana
The first poll of Montana’s Senate race since Democrat John Walsh was appointed to fill the remainder of Ambassador Max Baucus’ term did nothing to dispute the notion that the seat is a likely Republican pickup.

According to a Rasmussen survey released Wednesday, Republican congressman Steve Daines leads Walsh 51 to 37 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

Walsh’s appointment was at least partially intended to let him run with the benefits of incumbency, but so far it doesn’t seem to have had much of an impact; the former lieutentant governor still has just 31 percent name recognition in the state he represents in Congress.

Photo: Roger H. Goun via Flickr