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Under High Pressure, Weather Agency Defends Trump On Dorian

Under High Pressure, Weather Agency Defends Trump On Dorian

Reprinted with permission from Alternet

President Donald Trump has been fixated all week on his false claim made Sunday that Alabama “will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated” by Hurricane Dorian, a statement which wasn’t supported by the evidence at the time. Through a whirlwind of lies, distortions, and even potentially criminal forgeries, Trump has tried to beat back the criticism he received for the gaffe, a campaign that peaked Friday when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration criticized a Birmingham branch of the agency for a tweet that contradicted the president.

Shortly after Trump tweeted falsely about Alabama on Sunday, the National Weather Service (a branch of NOAA) in Birmingham tweeted:

Now, in a statement, NOAA disavowed the tweet:

There are several things to note about this new development. First, it comes on the heels of Trump apparently forcing a Homeland Security official to come to his defense, even though his claims didn’t support the president’s initial or subsequent falsehoods. Second, this new statement is particularly dubious given that no administration official was willing to put their name on it. Third, it doesn’t address Trump’s myriad false claims about Hurricane Dorian, including his first claim on Sunday which created a completely false impression about the risks Alabama faced.

Now, as I have noted multiple times, there were a few indications around the time of Trump’s false claim that a relatively small portion of Alabama had a small chance of experiencing strong winds because of the hurricane. (Trump has also shifted ground on what claim he is defending because on Thursday, he asserted that his belief had been that “Alabama may also be grazed or hit” by the storm. He had previously said there had been a “95 percent” chance of the storm hitting the state.) One projection said there was a 5 percent chance of a tiny part of the state feeling 39+ mph winds.

So it’s possible that the NWS tweet somewhat overstated the confidence that there would not be “any” impacts in Alabama, though many dispute the idea that there was anything wrong with the statement. Nevertheless, Trump’s claim was still unequivocally wrong, which he hasn’t admitted; he said that the chances the state would get hit hard had dramatically increased when they were diminishing down to zero. In fact, state officials were so unconcerned about the impact of the storm on Sunday that Alabama’s governor wasn’t on a conference call at FEMA, as the Washington Post reported:

During a briefing at FEMA headquarters on Sunday afternoon, Trump acknowledged governors who had dialed in from Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. He then turned to a state that wasn’t represented on the line.

“It may get a little piece of a great place: It’s called Alabama,” Trump said. “And Alabama could even be in for at least some very strong winds and something more than that, it could be. This just came up, unfortunately. It’s the size of the storm that we’re talking about. So, for Alabama, just please be careful also.”

Since his initial false prediction, Trump has made repeated false claims in his defense and is apparently pressuring government officials to back him up. Instead, he could have admitted he made a mistake or, alternatively, just let the matter drop. The fact that he can’t, and that he’s using the administration to serve his misguided impulses, is deeply disturbing. Many observers continued to express concern about Trump’s behavior:

 

NOAA Predicts Somewhat Slower Hurricane Season

NOAA Predicts Somewhat Slower Hurricane Season

By Ken Kaye, Sun Sentinel

Government forecasters on Thursday called for a slightly slower than average storm season with eight to 13 named storms, including three to six hurricanes — with one to two of those being major ones.

The lukewarm outlook assumes El Nino will arrive by the heart of the season in mid-August. Also, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are expected to be about average.

Yet the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration notes that even during otherwise slow seasons, the U.S. coastline still could be hit by a powerful system.

“The real message is that any section of our coastline can be hit by a severe tropical storm, and a single storm can cause tremendous havoc,” Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA administrator, said during a news conference in Brookyn, N.Y.

El Nino is the large-scale weather pattern that suppresses storm formation by producing strong vertical shear in the upper atmosphere.

As of this month, NOAA placed the odds of it emerging at about 70 percent. However, when, exactly, it might develop and how strong it would get remain question marks.

Hurricane season starts on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. The average season sees 12 named storms, including six hurricanes, three major, with sustained winds greater than 110 mph.

Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead hurricane forecaster, said the Atlantic has seen above-normal seasons in 12 of the past 20 years and remains in an era of high activity.

However, he said El Nino is expected to offset the active pattern.

“Atmospheric and oceanic conditions across the tropical Pacific are already taking on some El Niño characteristics,” he said.

“Also, we are currently seeing strong trade winds and wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, and NOAA’s climate models predict these conditions will persist, in part because of El Nino,” he added.

Other forecast teams also call for a slower than normal season.

Phil Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University call for nine named storms, including three hurricanes, one major.

AccuWeather.com predicts 10 named storms, including five hurricanes, two intense. Tropical Storm Risk, based in London, predicts 12 named storms, including five hurricanes.

And Earth Networks, the company behind WeatherBug mobile apps, calls for eight to 12 named storms, including three to five hurricanes, with one to three of those being major ones.

NOAA’s forecast makes no attempt to say how many storms will hit the U.S. coastline or where.

The last hurricane to strike the nation was Isaac, which hit Louisiana in August 2012. In October of that year, Hurricane Sandy transformed to an “extra-tropical” system before it hit the Northeast with hurricane-like conditions.

Photo: acccarrino via Flickr

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