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Monday, December 09, 2019

Is The Race In Ohio Already Over?

As both presidential campaigns ratchet up their efforts to capture Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, recent polling suggests the race might already be over—for Mitt Romney.

Certain key data from the latest polls suggest that President Obama’s victory in the Buckeye State could be a foregone conclusion — because each survey suggests that President Obama holds a double digit lead among those who have already voted.

SurveyUSA’s poll showed Obama leading 57 to 38 percent — a 19-point margin. Rasmussen Reports, a Republican-leaning pollster, found Obama leading by 29 points, 63 to 34 percent. The Wall Street Journal/NBC News showed Obama ahead by 26 points, 63 to 37 percent. A PPP poll found Obama leading by the largest margin of all, 76 to 24 percent. In all of these cases, the numbers cited reflect only those who have already voted.

Another important indicator that bodes well for Obama can be found in the registration numbers. According to a memo released by the Obama campaign, four in five in Ohioans who have registered to vote this cycle are either female, younger than 30, or African-American or Latino, which are all demographics that lean strongly Democratic. Additionally, almost two-thirds of Ohioans who registered to vote live in counties where Obama won in 2008.

Other  favorable statistics for Obama can be found in the early voting data. Specifically, 55 percent of the early-vote ballots requested in 2012 come from women, which is 3 percentage points greater than in 2008.

Part of the reason the Obama campaign has been doing so well in Ohio (and swing states in general when compared to his national polling numbers), is that Ohio’s economy is doing better than the national average. Unemployment is currently at 7 percent, down from 7.2 percent, or 0.8 percent below the national figure in September. Many of those jobs are in manufacturing and were created by the auto rescue — sectors that have been a centerpiece of the re-election campaign.

 

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