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Tag: senate elections
Longest-Serving Woman In History Of Congress Announces Retirement

Longest-Serving Woman In History Of Congress Announces Retirement

By John Fritze, The Baltimore Sun (TNS)

BALTIMORE — Senator Barbara A. Mikulski announced her retirement Monday morning.

Mikulski, speaking at the podium by herself, said she spent considerable time thinking about how she wanted to spend the next two years and ultimately decided she didn’t want to run another campaign.

“Do I spent my time raising money or raising hell to meet your day-to-day needs? Do I spend time focusing on my election or the next generation?” Mikulski said. “The more I thought about it, the more the answer became really clear.

“That’s why I’m here to announce I won’t be seeking a sixth term as a United States senator for Maryland,” she said.

Mikulski, often described as “tough as nails,” became emotional as she recalled her years growing up in Baltimore and thanked Maryland voters for honoring her “with your confidence and trust.”

Mikulski said she is eager to help elevate the next generation of Democrats, but declined to say whether there were any particular potential candidates she thought might be good for the job.

“Maryland has a lot of talent,” Mikulski quipped. “They’ll be telling you about it in the next 10 minutes.”

The Democrat and the longest-serving woman in the history of Congress addressed the media after promising an “important announcement about her future plans.”

Mikulski, 78, is Maryland’s senior senator. She began in 1976 in the House of Representatives. She has served in the Senate since 1987, recently heading the Appropriations Committee and would have been up for re-election next year.

Mikulski’s retirement is expected to set of a flurry of jockeying among the state’s already fractured Democrats, who have yet to unite after the finger-pointing that followed their loss of the governor’s mansion in November.

“It’s going to be a donnybrook,” Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller said. “It creates turmoil down the entire chain. I’ve had three would-be congressmen call me already and tell me not to make any decisions. … There is no unity. There is no party boss. There is no party discipline. It’s a free for all.”

Senator Jon Tester of Montana, chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said he is confident another Democrat would emerge “and make Barbara Mikulski proud.”

Photo: Maryland National Guard

How Republicans Could Risk A Senate Seat To Win The White House

How Republicans Could Risk A Senate Seat To Win The White House

By Alexis Levinson, CQ-Roll Call (TNS)

WASHINGTON — Republicans might face a major dilemma next year: Will they sacrifice a Senate seat to pick a prime candidate for vice president?

GOP operatives have often mentioned Senators Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Rob Portman of Ohio and Marco Rubio of Florida, as potential running mates for the eventual GOP nominee in 2016. Here’s the problem: The trio is up for re-election in competitive states in 2016. If one of them is selected for the No. 2 spot, Republicans would risk losing the Senate seat — and possibly, control of that chamber.

“Senator Ayotte and Senator Portman and Senator Rubio are great senators who are highly regarded, respected and very supported by their voters at home,” former National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Jerry Moran (R-KS) told CQ Roll Call last week. “It would be unlikely for the presidential candidate to choose someone, a Republican senator, if that senator was going to be replaced by a Democrat.”

After staggering losses last November, Democrats need a net gain of five seats in 2016 to reclaim a Senate majority — and New Hampshire, Ohio and Florida are high on the party’s target list of seats. President Barack Obama won all three states in 2012 and 2008.

Portman was on the short list to be Mitt Romney’s running mate in 2012. His friendship with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who is exploring a presidential bid, means he could find himself in a similar spot in 2016.

This possibility has made the Buckeye State’s Senate race more alluring to Democrats. Cincinnati City Councilmember P.G. Sittenfeld has already entered the race, and at least two more Democrats — former Gov. Ted Strickland and Rep. Tim Ryan — are considering bids.

“There’s a decent chance, I mean a really decent chance, that Portman won’t be running for the Senate,” Steve Fought, a Democratic operative from Ohio, said last month about the race.

There’s a similar situation in the New Hampshire and Florida Senate races. If Ayotte were nominated for vice president, she could be absent from her home state for the final few months of the election while she campaigned across the country for the national ticket.

In Rubio’s case, Florida law currently prohibits him from being on both tickets at once, so he would have to end his re-election bid for Senate to accept the nomination. State lawmakers could try to change that law — much like Sen. Rand Paul’s allies in the Kentucky Legislature, who are trying to ensure he can seek re-election and the presidency at the same time.

But Rubio, who is deciding between running for president or seeking re-election, alluded to the all-consuming nature of running on a national ticket at a breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor last month.

“My intention if I run for president is to run for president,” he told reporters. “If I decide to make that decision, it will not be with the intention of looking for a plan B if it doesn’t work out.”

Reps. Patrick Murphy and Alan Grayson, both Florida Democrats, have expressed interest in running for Rubio’s seat.

If Rubio dropped out of the Senate race to accept the nomination, Republicans would be in a tight spot. Presidential nominees often pick their running mates later in the summer, but the 2016 nominees will likely make their selections before the conventions in June or July. Even under that timeline, it would be difficult for any new Senate candidates to campaign and raise money for a statewide race in a competitive state.

And in New Hampshire, Republicans could be in a problematic position even if Ayotte simultaneously won on the national ticket and her Senate race. In that case, she would have to resign her Senate seat, and the governor would appoint a replacement to serve until the next general election two years later.

New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan is a Democrat, and if she, or another Democrat, wins the governor’s race in 2016, the appointed replacement would almost certainly be a Democrat. It could even be Hassan, who is considering challenging Ayotte.

All of this could put a damper on Ayotte’s chances of becoming the Republican vice-presidential pick. What’s more, the Granite State Republican, 46, might have other opportunities in future cycles to run nationwide. Rubio, 43, and Portman, 59, have plenty of time too.

Also, the GOP nominee for president has no shortage of options outside the Senate, including several governors.

For their parts, aides for Rubio and Portman declined to comment for this story, though the Ohio Republican has said he’s not interested in the vice presidency. A spokesperson for Ayotte told CQ Roll Call she was focused on serving in the Senate.

“We’re not making any assumptions,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Jon Tester (D-MT) told CQ Roll Call last week, in response to a question about recruitment for these three races.

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Roger Wicker (R-MS) brushed off a question on the topic saying only of Rubio, Portman and Ayotte, “I think the fact that they’re so talented is a plus.”

Currently, all three senators are favored to hold their seats. The Rothenberg and Gonzales Political Report rates the New Hampshire and Ohio Senate races Leans Republican, and the Florida Senate race is rated Tilts Republican.

Photo: Gage Skidmore via Flickr

Republicans Appear In Position To Take Senate Control

Republicans Appear In Position To Take Senate Control

By David Lightman, McClatchy Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON — Voters hate Washington, and they’ll get their chance to shake things up in November’s midterm elections.

The big question is whether the Republicans can win control of the Senate while holding the House of Representatives, which would give them control of the entire Congress for the remaining two years of Barack Obama’s presidency and set the stage for the 2016 elections.

At stake this fall are 36 of the Senate’s 100 seats, all 435 House seats and 36 governorships.

Republicans start with a decided edge:

-The most vulnerable Democrats are in states Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won two years ago.

-Republicans are already strong favorites to win Democratic-held seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia.

-The GOP’s strongest candidates survived primary challengers from Tea Party loyalists, who have often been volatile and potentially losing general election candidates in the past.

-Obama’s flagging poll numbers are making him a drag on Democrats. Voters, by a 41 to 32 percent plurality, say Obama makes them more likely to vote for a Republican, according to a McClatchy-Marist poll this month. Forty percent approved of how Obama was doing his job, the second worst showing of his presidency.

“Republicans are going to have a good election night. We just don’t know how good it’s going to be,” said Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report.

Republicans need a net gain of six seats for a Senate majority. Independent analysts predict Republicans gains of four to eight seats.

Battleground-state Democrats continue to make good poll showings, since the Republican brand also is tarnished.

“The public is wary of both parties,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, as last fall’s partial government shutdown continues to hurt the Republicans’ image.

Republicans are likely to retain their House majority, but they don’t appear to be in a position to make a net gain in governorships.

Most closely watched will be Wisconsin, where Republican Scott Walker’s 2016 presidential hopes would end with a November loss. Polls show Walker, under fire because of aides’ fundraising tactics, in a virtual tie with Democratic businesswoman Mary Burke.

If there’s to be a big change, it’ll happen in the Senate, but even that’s no certainty.

“This is a Republican year, but it’s more a tilt than a wave,” said Sabato.

North Carolina

Senator Kay Hagan (D-NC) and North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis, the Republican, are locked in a clash of the status quos, Washington vs. Raleigh.

Hagan has to be careful not to appear too close to Obama without severing the tie.

Before the president’s speech in Charlotte to the American Legion last Tuesday, she protested that the administration “has not yet done enough to earn the lasting trust of our veterans and implement real and permanent reforms.”

But when Obama arrived at the North Carolina Air National Guard base, she greeted him warmly — a photo Republicans gleefully publicized.

Alaska

Senator Mark Begich’s website features a press release headlined “Begich Tough on Obama,” detailing how the Alaska Democrat has stood up to the president.

Republican Dan Sullivan counters that Begich is a steady Obama loyalist. He opposed the administration on key votes only 2.9 percent of the time, according to a Congressional Quarterly study. This is a hard race to handicap; in a small state such as Alaska, personality often matters as much as philosophy.

Louisiana

Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) has tried distancing herself from Obama, but can’t stray too far. African-Americans made up 29 percent of the electorate in her race six years ago and went for her 96 to 1 percent.

Her biggest challenge could be winning outright November 4. If no one tops 50 percent, the top two finishers will compete in a Dec. 6 runoff. Republican Bill Cassidy, a three-term congressman, is running about even with Landrieu. Trailing is conservative Rob Maness, a retired Air Force colonel.

Arkansas

Senator Mark Pryor (D-AR) voted against Obama’s preferred positions 10.3 percent of the time last year, more than any other Senate Democrat. Still, Rep. Tom Cotton, a Republican freshman, is slamming Pryor for supporting Obama 90 percent of the time.

Pryor also needs to keep Democrats in line, and in a new ad, touts his support for the 2010 health-care law, which Republicans loathe. The 30-second spot features Pryor’s father, David, a very popular former Arkansas governor and senator.

Iowa

Rep. Bruce Braley, a Democrat, is deadlocked with Republican State Sen. Joni Ernst in a contest for the seat being vacated by retiring Democrat Tom Harkin.

Gaffes have plagued Braley, notably a dispute with a neighbor about chickens and a reference to veteran Sen. Charles Grassley as “a farmer from Iowa who never went to law school,” an insult both to farmers and the popular Republican.

Ernst, barely known a few months ago, surged into contention with a down-to-earth style. In one ad, she boasts, “I grew up castrating hogs on an Iowa farm, so when I come to Washington, I’ll know how to cut pork.”

Colorado

Colorado Republicans got a boost this year when Rep. Cory Gardner, a personable conservative, challenged Sen. Mark Udall, a Democrat.

Turnout in the Hispanic community, perhaps eager to show support for Obama’s efforts to revamp immigration laws, could decide this race. Obama rolled up a 3-to-1 margin in 2012 among Colorado Hispanic voters, who made up 14 percent of the state’s vote.

New Hampshire

Former Senator Scott Brown, who represented Massachusetts in the Senate until losing in 2012, is in a virtual dead heat with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, largely because of Obama’s plunging popularity.

Shaheen remains the favorite. She can pin the carpetbagger label on Brown and has been a savvy political organizer for decades.

Kentucky

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, who rarely has an easy re-election, is slightly ahead of Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes in most polls.

This race is likely to go to the wire, as voters endure one of the costliest ad blitzes in Senate election history. Ousting McConnell, whose wily ways and hardball tactics have infuriated Democrats for years, is a huge Democratic priority.

Georgia

Georgia could prove an annoyance for Republicans. Democrats have had little recent statewide success.

Democrat Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Senator Sam Nunn, is by some accounts running ahead of Republican businessman David Perdue. Keys to victory here could be African-American turnout and whether Nunn can build a strong margin among women.

Kansas

Three-term incumbent Senator Pat Roberts, a Republican, survived a Tea Party primary challenge in August, but with 48 percent of the vote. Complicating the fall political equation is independent Greg Orman, who is making a strong pitch to centrists.

“You can’t dismiss Orman,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “He’s got the money and he’s got the message. People are looking for someone who’s not Washington.”

Photo: Crazy George via Flickr

Female Voters Will Be Pivotal In Key North Carolina Senate Contest

Female Voters Will Be Pivotal In Key North Carolina Senate Contest

By Renee Schoof, McClatchy Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON — Women were the key to Senator Kay Hagan’s election in 2008, and in what is likely to be a close race for re-election this year, she is stressing issues aimed at them — equal pay, health care, birth control and education.

The strategy is part of the North Carolina Democrat’s efforts to attack the policies pushed over the past three years by the Republican-controlled state legislature, where her GOP opponent, state House Speaker Thom Tillis, has played a major role.

Hagan’s game plan tries to capitalize on her party’s strength among women voters and gives her campaign a message that it hopes will appeal to women who vote independent as well. Boosting the Democratic turnout in the November mid-term election is crucial for Hagan, and Democratic candidates across the country. Midterms are traditionally low-turnout elections and often hurt the party in power, and this year it’s Hagan’s.

“In all close Senate races, male or female, Democrats win by winning women more than they lose men by,” said Democratic political strategist Celinda Lake. “So women are key to their victory.”

Particularly important for her will be the groups that traditionally drop off in off-year elections — unmarried women under 55, younger women and women of color, Lake said.

In a recent interview, Hagan said she would have “the biggest, most effective turnout operation North Carolina has ever seen in a Senate race.” She said it would include “neighbor to neighbor” visits to women by campaign volunteers.

On Monday, the campaign will unveil another piece of her strategy, the formation of “Women for Kay,” which will fan out seeking support and post campaign news on Facebook.

The group’s chairs are Betty McCain of Wilson, the former head of the state Department of Cultural Resources; Nelda Leon of Charlotte, a criminal justice consultant and president of the Hispanic American Democrats of Mecklenburg County; civil rights leader Minnie Jones of Asheville; and youth advocate Constance Hyman of Wilmington.

Hagan’s message will be pointing out policies that Tillis supported in the state legislature that her campaign believes are detrimental to women. Among them, according to the campaign, was his opposition to a state equal pay measure; and his opposition to a proposed increase in the federal minimum wage — from $7.25 an hour to $10.10 –that Congress also rejected.

Tillis also voted for restrictions on abortion services last year, and for a veto override on a budget bill that cut funding for Planned Parenthood. Hagan’s campaign says that Tillis has said states should have the right to ban contraception, though he hasn’t said whether North Carolina should do so.

Her campaign has also criticized him for supporting a constitutional amendment on “personhood,” which would grant legal protections to a fertilized human egg and possibly ban some forms of birth control.

Under Tillis’ leadership, the legislature’s 2013 budget also cut spending on education, opposed raises for teachers and ended a pay supplement for teachers with master’s degrees. In the current legislative session, however, Tillis supports an across-the-board pay raise for teachers for the coming year. Republican Senate leader Phil Berger and Republican Governor Pat McCrory also have said they support the raise.

Tillis spokesman Jordan Shaw said that the Republicans will “target our message” to women as well, and will portray their Senate nominee as someone who can “get the nation’s economy back on track.”

“I feel that Speaker Tillis has done that during his three years in Raleigh, in showing an ability to pass balanced budgets,” Shaw said. “We also feel like there needs to be a demonstrated ability to put more money in the pockets of taxpayers and less money to the government.”

Hagan’s campaign, meanwhile, ticks off a list of measures that she has supported that it says benefit women: raising the minimum wage; the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act in 2009, which restored rights to sue for pay discrimination stripped away in a 2007 Supreme Court decision; and the Paycheck Fairness Act, which, among other provisions, prohibited retaliation by employers against workers who disclose the wages of others in response to complaints. The measure failed to get the 60 votes it needed in the Senate in April.

Her campaign also says that she supported “measures that increase women’s access to preventive care and stopped insurance companies from charging women more than they charge men.” Both are part of the Affordable Care Act. Republicans have attacked Hagan and other Democrats for voting for it and assuring voters that they could keep health care plans if they like them, when instead some, whose plans didn’t comply, were forced to get new coverage.

Hagan also voted against a bill to defund Planned Parenthood in Congress, which failed to pass.

Planned Parenthood North Carolina plans to spend $3.3 million on Hagan’s re-election. It’s major effort will be to target a group of 135,643 voters in Wake and Mecklenburg counties, many of whom vote infrequently.

Tillis, according to Paige Johnson, vice president of external affairs for the Planned Parenthood Action Fund of Central North Carolina, has “run this legislature far to the right and has really pushed through extremist policies. And we are a moderate state. The extremism going on in Raleigh has, I think, sort of woken up people and they’re paying attention.”

Republican strategist Katie Packer Gage, a partner at Burning Glass Consulting in Alexandria, Va., who focuses on political messaging to women, said she wasn’t surprised that Hagan has made women a priority. She suggested that the senator is trying to divert voters’ attention from the health care law and the economy.

Gage said that many women feel worse off under the Affordable Care Act, or have heard stories of others who say they’re paying more or have found their doctors aren’t included in their insurance plans, she said.

The reason for all the political attention is that women vote in higher numbers and make up a bigger part of undecided voters than men do, according to the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University, which provides scholarly research and data.

They are also more likely to support Democratic candidates than men are, and they make their choices on the basis of the candidates’ policies, not their gender, said Debbie Walsh, the center’s director.

Noting that they earn less, save less for retirement and tend to live longer than men do, “Women feel more economically vulnerable than men do,” she said. “That sense of insecurity tends to lead women voters toward the party that supports the social safety net.”

When Hagan won her seat in 2008, she carried 55 percent of the women’s vote in North Carolina, compared with 41 percent for the Republican incumbent, Elizabeth Dole.

Still, Walsh said, this year will be a jump ball.

“I think you’re going to be seeing all over the country on both sides of the aisle a big push to reach women voters,” she said. “They have been a pivotal vote in elections.”

Photo: Third Way via Flickr