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Louisiana Runoff Looks Increasingly Grim For Landrieu

Memo Pad Politics

Louisiana Runoff Looks Increasingly Grim For Landrieu


Although it has been overshadowed by the uproar over President Obama’s executive action on immigration reform, the unrest gripping Ferguson, Missouri, and the Thanksgiving holiday, there’s still a Senate race going on in Louisiana. On December 6, Pelican State voters will decide whether to grant a fourth term to Democratic senator Mary Landrieu, or replace her with Republican congressman Bill Cassidy. And with less than a week to go, things look very ominous for the incumbent.

Landrieu won a narrow plurality in the general election, topping Cassidy and right-wing Republican Rob Maness, 43 to 41 and 14 percent. Because nobody won a 50 percent majority, Landrieu and Cassidy advanced to a head-to-head runoff, which the Republican appears to be dominating.

Polls suggest that Cassidy has healthy double-digit lead in the runoff race. He’s also greatly outpacing Landrieu on the airwaves. While Republican-aligned outside groups such as Americans for Prosperity and the National Republican Senatorial Committee are still stacking money behind Cassidy’s cause, most major Democratic groups have abandoned Landrieu. According to The Washington Post, pro-Cassidy forces are on pace to spend about 100 times as much as Landrieu’s allies.

That leaves the senator with very few opportunities to shake up the race, although she hasn’t stopped searching for ways to do so. Landrieu tried and failed to pass a measure mandating the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, in an effort to further differentiate herself from President Obama. And she has sharpened her campaign ads, accusing Cassidy of being a bumbling fool, and warning that President Obama will be impeached if Cassidy wins. But if early voting numbers are any indication, her efforts are falling short.

As The Times-Picayune reports:

About 85,900 registered Republicans took advantage of early voting for the Dec. 6 runoff, which was held during the week leading up Thanksgiving, as well as Saturday. That’s almost 3,000 more than the number of people who voted early for the Nov. 4 election, and it amounts to a 4 percent bump in early voting overall from a month ago.

The jump in early Republican voters is noteworthy, given that early voting overall dropped by 10 percent from the November primary to the December runoff. The number of registered Democrats who voted early fell even further — about an 18 percent decrease — from the primary to the runoff, according to information provided by the Secretary of State’s office.

That’s not the only bad news for Landrieu. The biggest drop in early votes occurred among the black voters who form her political base. A whiter runoff portends nearly certain doom for Landrieu, who won just 18 percent of the white vote on November 4.

Democrats warn against reading too deeply into the early voting numbers, citing the fact they don’t capture swing voters, and paint an incomplete portrait of the electorate. But it certainly looks like Republicans are on track to lock down a 54th Senate seat this Saturday.

Photo: Senate Democrats via Flickr

Henry Decker

Henry Decker was formerly the Managing Editor of The National Memo. He is currently an Online Associate at MRCampaigns.

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  1. DAK27 December 2, 2014

    I for one hope she not only looses, but she gets crushed in a landslide defeat. She is no more a Democrat than John McCain or Mitt Romney. Oh, she says she is, but she acts like she’s a Republican and why have a GOPwannabe when we can have the real, bat-shit crazy Republican instead.

    1. joe schmo December 5, 2014

      Then explain to me why she voted behind Obama every time? Sorry, not buying it. At the moment, those ‘bat-shit crazy Republicans’ have the upper hand don’t they?

  2. Dominick Vila December 2, 2014

    Sen. Landrieu is going to lose, and is going to lose badly. Support by Democrats evaporated after she championed the construction of the Koch brothers Keystone pipeline, and failed miserably. I rather see another Republican fool in Congress than a person willing to sell her beliefs in hope of getting votes. Her little scheme backfired. Not only did she not convince Republicans to vote for her, she lost the little Democratic support she had. Good riddance!

    1. FT66 December 2, 2014

      I fully agree with you Dominick. This woman is totally selfish. She always thinks only of herself. She doesn’t understand if a Team works together with a common goal always wins. Win or lose of her means the same to us.

    2. joe schmo December 5, 2014

      Dominick she only did that as a last ditch effort to appeal to Conservatives (won’t work because just like you most of us stick with our base) because she was losing anyway…..

  3. Stuart December 2, 2014

    How did Huey Long ever win this state?

  4. plc97477 December 2, 2014

    Maybe if she had championed for the liberal issues she would have a better chance.

    1. Whatmeworry December 2, 2014

      she backed Barak 97%, that’s why she is toast

      1. joe schmo December 5, 2014

        Thank you. Finally an answer that makes the most sense.

    2. Daniel Max Ketter December 2, 2014

      I gotta agree. She wasn’t left enough for me. I would have liked to see more environmental issues and regulations on her agenda

    3. joe schmo December 5, 2014

      It is a fact that she has been championing the liberal issues including that conundrum called Obamacare and that is what seems to be getting her canned.

  5. Whatmeworry December 2, 2014

    Thanks Barak for sealing her fate

  6. simmss December 2, 2014

    If she would have been honest and lead with her heart instead of following the most corrupt administration in history, she probably would be back. The voters are tired of bullcrap day in and day out. They (politicians) start out just like all of us. Doctors, plumbers, sanitation workers and so forth. Then they run for office and all of a sudden were scum and they have all the answers. About time the public wake up to their greed for the money and power.

    1. joe schmo December 5, 2014

      Oh but she did. She stood behind Obama all the way through Obamacare. It was only when her butt was on the line that she changed course. Should tell you something?

  7. TMZ1928 December 4, 2014

    No different than what happened all over the country on election day. US citizens want this lawless and lying president stopped.

  8. joe schmo December 5, 2014

    Landreiu down by 18%…. and Hillary stated today that we need to empathize with our enemies? What ever happened to good ole respect.
    You all really need to rethink the wheel….. Just sayin’.


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